Bitcoin (BTC) and most major altcoins are witnessing profit-booking on July 25 as the bulls scale back their positions before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 26 through July 27. This indicates that the sentiment remains fragile and that bulls are not confident about carrying long positions into the event.
Several analysts have retained their bearish view after Bitcoin failed to sustain above the 200-week moving average at $22,780. CryptoQuant contributor Venturefounder expects the selling to resume and Bitcoin to fall as low as $14,000 before a macro bottom is confirmed.
The institutional investors seem to be absent from the markets and the recovery is being driven by the retail investors. Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed that investors holding one Bitcoin or less have been accumulating aggressively “more now than ever.”
Could retail investors continue their frantic pace of purchasing and put a floor below Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($21,857) on July 23 but the bulls could not clear the hurdle at $23,363 on July 24. This suggests that bears are aggressively defending the overhead resistance.
The price has returned to the 20-day EMA, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If this level cracks, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $20,750. Such a move will invalidate the breakout from the symmetrical triangle.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
This advantage could tilt in favor of buyers if the price breaks above $23,363. If that happens, the pair could rally to $28,171 and then to $30,000. The bears will have to sink the price below the support line to gain the upper hand.
The bears have successfully defended the overhead resistance at $1,700 in the past few days. However, a minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed Ether (ETH) to drop below $1,464, indicating buying at lower levels.
If the price once again rebounds off $1,464, the ETH/USDT pair could continue its tight range-bound action for a few more days. The rising 20-day EMA ($1,397) and the RSI in the positive zone indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
A break and close above $1,700 could signal the resumption of the up-move. The pair could then rally to $2,000.
This positive view could invalidate if the price slips below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair may drop to $1,280. A strong rebound off this level could keep the pair range-bound between $1,280 and $1,700 for a few days.
BNB turned down from the downtrend line on July 23, indicating that the bears continue to defend the level with vigor. The bears will now attempt to sink the price below the moving averages.
If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could test the support line of the ascending channel. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to push the pair above the downtrend line and challenge the resistance line of the channel.
Another possibility is that the bears sink the price below the support line of the channel. If that happens, the advantage will tilt in favor of the bears and the pair could decline to the strong support at $211.
Ripple (XRP) has been consolidating between $0.30 and $0.39 for the past few days. Although the price bounced off the moving averages on July 23, the rally could not reach the overhead resistance at $0.39. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
The bears are trying to sink the price below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the XRP/USDT pair could gradually decline toward $0.30. The buyers are likely to defend this level with all their might because if the support cracks, the pair could resume the downtrend.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle at $0.39 and start a new up-move. The pair could then rally to $0.50.
Cardano (ADA) attempted to rise above the overhead resistance at $0.55 on July 24 but the bears successfully defended the level. That may have attracted profit-booking from the short-term traders.
The bears are attempting to sink the price below the moving averages. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.44. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may oscillate between $0.44 and $0.55 for a few days.
Another possibility is that the price rebounds off the moving averages. If that happens, the bulls will again try to push the pair above the overhead resistance. If they succeed, the pair could pick up momentum and rally to $0.63 and then to $0.70.
Solana’s (SOL) failure to rebound off the 20-day EMA ($39) indicates that the bullish momentum may be weakening. The bears will attempt to sink the price to the support line, which is an important level to keep an eye on.
If the price rebounds off the support line, the buyers will make another attempt to push the SOL/USDT pair toward the overhead resistance at $48. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to signal the completion of the ascending triangle pattern. This bullish setup has a target objective of $71.
Conversely, if bears sink the price below the support line, the bullish pattern will be negated. The pair could then decline to $30. A break below this level will indicate that the bears are back in control.
The bears have pulled Dogecoin (DOGE) below the moving averages on July 25, which opens the doors for a decline in the trendline. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
If the price rebounds off the trendline, the bulls will attempt to push the DOGE/USDT pair above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could rise to the overhead resistance at $0.08. A break and close above this level will complete an ascending triangle pattern that has a target objective of $0.11.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the trendline, the bullish setup will be negated. That could sink the pair to $0.06 and later to the crucial support at $0.05.
The bulls repeatedly failed to push Polkadot (DOT) above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($7.47) in the past few days, indicating that bears are defending the level aggressively.
The DOT/USDT pair slipped below the 20-day EMA ($7.23) on July 25. If bears sustain the price below this level, the pair could slide toward the strong support at $6. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
Another possibility is that the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the 50-day SMA. If that happens, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The pair could then rise to $8.79 and later to the psychological level of $10.
Polygon (MATIC) turned down from the resistance line on July 25, indicating that bears are selling on minor rallies. The bears will attempt to sink the price to the next support at $0.75.
The rising 20-day EMA ($0.75) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that buyers have a slight edge. If the price rebounds off $0.75, the bulls will again attempt to push the MATIC/USDT pair above the resistance line.
If they succeed, the pair could rally to the psychological level of $1. The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to start an up-move to $1.26.
On the contrary, if the price breaks below $0.75, it will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened. The pair could then slide to $0.63.
Avalanche (AVAX) formed a Doji candlestick pattern on July 23 and an inside-day candlestick pattern on July 24, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.
This uncertainty resolved to the downside on July 25 and the AVAX/USDT pair declined to the breakout level at $21.35. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips.
That could increase the possibility of a retest at $26.50. A break above this resistance could clear the path for a rally to $29 and then to $33.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below $21.35, the pair could drop to the support line. The bulls are likely to defend this level aggressively.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
Ray Schuetz received a Masters Degree in computer science from The University of Texas (Austin). Ray has been working as a full-time blockchain consultant for the past 3 years. In his spare time, Ray enjoys writing for EthereumCryptocurrency.com and other crypto news publications.