If you look at crypto assets’ price movements as a series of isolated events, the picture is messy. Sure, some traders can occasionally win big off one-time events or thanks to sensing a meme-inspired trend.
In the long run, however, most of these “fortuitous” traders tend to lose.
Why? Because they have to pick big-time winners to cover all the times they miss their targets.
For every Shiba Inu, there were a thousand coins that didn’t moon.
Which is why crypto traders who employ processes rather than try to predict events are more likely to fill their bags in the long run.
They trade on probabilities rather than hoping that Token X goes parabolic next week. They win on aggregate numbers instead of sexy-looking one-offs. If you offered them average weekly returns of over 5% on trades… they’d bite your hand off.
The table below shows average returns following high VORTECS™ Scores generated by Cointelegraph Markets Pro’s historical analysis.
Good things come to those who wait
There are two unmistakable trends here. Firstly, the higher the VORTECS™ Score, the greater the average returns. In other words, the more confident the algorithm is that the historical conditions around the coin are bullish, the more likely this asset is to deliver greater gains after the high score was registered.
Secondly, time is of consequence. The algorithm has been trained on a fuzzy time frame with the emphasis on identifying favorable conditions that may materialize over several days.
The more time passes after the signs of a historically favorable outlook are recognized by the VORTECS™ algorithm, the better, on average, the asset’s price performance looks. Favorable conditions shaping up around high-scoring tokens generate the greatest price increases after 168 hours (one week) from first showing up on the algorithm’s radar.
Doing the crypto trading math
A 5 or 6% return on investment over a week may not seem a lot, in these days of bull market plenty. Don’t be fooled.
Studies show that short-term traders often lose money. One recent paper estimated that “97% of all individuals who persisted for 300 days” in the Brazilian equities futures market fell into this category. Other studies have demonstrated similar results.
So to find an algorithm that can generate consistently positive average returns over accurately measured periods of time is — well, the Holy Grail for crypto traders.
Is it infallible? Absolutely not. Again, don’t be fooled. The VORTECS™ algorithm has thrown up plenty of scores that suggested bullish conditions, and yet prices failed to rise.
What this table shows is the AVERAGE return over a specific time frame following an arbitrary score.
But what this table PROVES is that VORTECS™ does exactly what it is designed to do. It consistently identifies market conditions for specific crypto assets that have been historically bullish, and employs confidence modeling to determine a score that traders can use as part of their decision making.
VORTECS™ Score ROI methodology and background
The VORTECS™ Score is an AI-powered algorithm exclusively available to Cointelegraph Markets Pro members.
The tool is trained to search for historical patterns of price change, trading activity and social sentiment around 200-plus digital assets, ringing the alarm whenever the arrangement of these metrics starts to resemble those that, in the past, consistently showed up before price increases.
The higher the VORTECS™ Score at any given moment, the greater the model’s confidence.
The table presents average price changes across all digital assets that hit VORTECS™ Scores of 80, 85, and 90 after fixed intervals, from the moment the Score was first registered. The period of observation is the entire period of CT Markets Pro platform’s operation, from early Jan. to late Nov. 2021., or almost 11 months.
For this analysis, each asset could only yield one observation per day, i.e. if a coin went from 79 to 81, then back to 79 and then to 80 once again within a few hours, only its first entry to 80+ would count.
This way, we ensured that the analysis did not give disproportional representation to instances of more volatile VORTECS™ Scores as opposed to those times when assets went above reference thresholds and maintained high Scores for longer times.
The average price movement figures that you see in the table are aggregated from hundreds of digital assets hitting high VORTECS™ Scores over the observed period of almost 11 months.
They reflect crypto assets’ performances in bull, bear, and sideways markets, in both Bitcoin season and Altseason, and for all sorts of assets from DEX tokens to layer one platforms and privacy coins.
Cointelegraph is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are volatile investments and carry significant risk including the risk of permanent and total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Figures and charts are correct at the time of writing or as otherwise specified. Live-tested strategies are not recommendations. Consult your financial advisor before making financial decisions.
Ray Schuetz received a Masters Degree in computer science from The University of Texas (Austin). Ray has been working as a full-time blockchain consultant for the past 3 years. In his spare time, Ray enjoys writing for EthereumCryptocurrency.com and other crypto news publications.