Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $30,000 on June 22, which may be a final sign of capitulation. Data from Skew suggests that if Bitcoin’s price does not recover sharply in the next few days, the decline in the current quarter could be the second-worst quarter since 2014.
Bull and bear phases are part and parcel of every asset class. All the legacy markets have witnessed several bear phases with massive drawdowns in the past. However, after the bear phase ends, a new bull market begins and long-term investors are usually rewarded with strong gains. The crypto markets are presently witnessing a similar bear market correction.
Every bear market is caused due to events that create fear and panic among market participants. However, unless the long-term fundamentals change, the smart investor should use the corrections to buy. Glassnode data suggests that long-term Bitcoin holders are using the current decline to accumulate Bitcoin.
It is impossible to time the bottom because it will be confirmed only in hindsight. Therefore, capitulations to strong support levels during panic selling may be viewed as buying opportunities.
Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to spot the critical support and resistance levels.
The long tail on Bitcoin’s June 22 candlestick shows strong buying in the $31,000 to $28,000 support zone. This was the fourth instance when buyers defended the support zone, hence this becomes an important area to watch out for.
The relative strength index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, which suggests the sellers may be losing their momentum.
If buyers drive the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($36,260), the BTC/USDT pair could spend some more time between the $28,000 and $43,351.67 range. The longer the time spent inside this range, the stronger will be the eventual breakout from it.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bears are selling on relief rallies. A break below $28,000 may result in panic selling, dragging the price to $20,000.
Ether (ETH) broke below the triangle on June 18 and reached the critical support at $1,728.74 on June 22. The bulls purchased this dip and are attempting to stage a relief rally, which may hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($2,325).
If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will make one more attempt to sink the ETH/USDT pair below the $1,728.74 support. If they succeed, the pair could start the next leg of the down move that may reach $1,536.92 and then $1,293.18.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. Contrary to this assumption, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair may rise to the 50-day simple moving average ($2,812).
Binance Coin (BNB) plunged below the $291.06 support on June 21 but the bears could not break the next support at $211.70. The long tail on the June 22 candlestick indicates strong buying at lower levels.
If the bulls push and sustain the price above $291.06, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line. The bears are likely to defend this resistance aggressively.
However, the RSI is forming a bullish divergence, suggesting the bearish momentum may be weakening. If the bulls can pierce the downtrend line, the pair could rally to $433.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level or the downtrend line, the bears will again try to pull the pair below the $211.70 support. If they manage to do that, the pair could slide to $200 and later to $126.75.
Cardano (ADA) dropped to the critical support at $1 on June 22 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick suggests that bulls are defending this level aggressively. However, repeated retests of a support level weaken it.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($1.44) and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the sellers will again try to break the $1 support.
If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could witness long liquidation and a drop to $0.80 and then to $0.68 may be on the cards. Alternatively, if the bulls push the price above the moving averages, the pair may rally to $1.94.
XRP dived below the $0.75 to $0.65 support zone on June 20, indicating aggressive selling by traders. The break below the May 23 low at $0.65 has extended the lower highs and lower lows pattern for the coin.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative zone suggest the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price turns down from $0.75, it will suggest that bears have flipped this level into resistance. That could pull the price down to $0.40.
Contrary to this assumption, if the bulls propel and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.80), it will indicate accumulation at lower levels. The XRP/USDT pair could then rally to $1.07. A break above the descending channel will suggest that the downtrend is over.
Dogecoin (DOGE) plunged sharply on June 21 and broke below the $0.21 support. The price has rebounded off the $0.16 support but the bulls have an uphill task ahead of them.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.29) and the RSI in the negative zone suggest that bears have the upper hand. Any relief rally is likely to face stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA and then at the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern.
If the price turns down from either overhead resistance level, the DOGE/USDT pair could retest the $0.16 support. A breakdown and close below this level could attract further selling and the pair could decline to $0.10.
Alternatively, if bulls can drive and sustain the price above the neckline, it will suggest that the bearish setup did not find support at lower levels. That could open the doors for a rally to the 50-day SMA and then to $0.45.
The bulls are attempting to stall Polkadot’s (DOT) decline near the May 23 low at $13.63. However, the bulls are unlikely to have it easy as the relief rally could face selling near the 20-day EMA ($21).
Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bears will try to resume the downtrend.
A break below $13 could open the gates for a further fall to the psychological support at $10 and then to $7.50. This negative view will be nullified if the bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA.
Uniswap (UNI) declined close to the May 23 low at $13 but the long tail on the June 22 candlestick suggests that bulls are attempting to defend this level. The relief rally could now reach the 20-day EMA ($21.72).
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI below 39 suggest that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the sellers will make one more attempt to sink the UNI/USDT pair below the $13 support.
If they succeed, the pair could extend the decline to $10 and then to $7. On the contrary, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, it will be the first signal that the downtrend could be over. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($27.59).
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) fell to $387.61 on June 22 but the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows that the bulls are attempting to defend the $370 support. The altcoin could now rise to the breakdown level at $538.11.
The downsloping moving averages and the RSI near the oversold zone indicate that bears have the upper hand. If the price turns down from $538.11, the BCH/USDT pair could retest the support at $370.
A breakdown and close below this level could clear the path for a fall to $300 and then $270. Alternatively, if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA ($585), the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($822). Such a move will suggest that the pair may have hit a bottom.
Litecoin (LTC) broke below the May 23 low at $118.03 on June 22. However a minor positive is that the bulls purchased the dip and have pushed the price back above $118.03 today.
The LTC/USDT pair could now rise to the downtrend line. If the price turns down from this resistance, the bears will attempt to sink and sustain the pair below the $118.03 support. If they manage to do that, the descending triangle pattern will complete.
This bearish setup could attract further selling and may result in a further decline to $70. This negative view will be invalidated if the bulls drive the price above the downtrend line. That will indicate strong buying at lower levels and the pair may then rally to the 50-day SMA ($215).
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
Ray Schuetz received a Masters Degree in computer science from The University of Texas (Austin). Ray has been working as a full-time blockchain consultant for the past 3 years. In his spare time, Ray enjoys writing for EthereumCryptocurrency.com and other crypto news publications.