Analysts expect the U.S. economy to stage a strong recovery in the second half of this year as coronavirus vaccines are distributed and economic activity begins to increase. As growth picks up, inflation concerns are also on the rise. Speculation is rife that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to adjust its dovish stance to hold down interest rates.
In anticipation, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has jumped from about 1% at the start of the year to 1.626%. This has resulted in profit-booking in assets considered as risky and as equities pullback, a temporary pause may be put on Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally.
The drop in investor sentiment has also hurt the stock prices of MicroStrategy and Tesla who have each invested in Bitcoin recently. MicroStrategy’s stock price has plunged by over 50% from its all-time high at $1,315, even though the price of Bitcoin is currently only down about 20% from its all-time high.
Tesla, which had announced a $1.5 billion Bitcoin position on Feb. 8 has also seen its stock price plummet by over 34%. To stem the decline, longtime Tesla analyst Gary Black has suggested the electric car maker dump its Bitcoin holdings and instead use the proceeds for a stock buyback.
Let’s analyze the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to spot the critical support levels where buyers may step in and arrest the current decline.
Bitcoin turned down from the $52,040.95 overhead resistance on March 04, which suggests that traders are lightening up their positions at higher levels. The selling has continued and the price has dipped below the 20-day exponential moving average ($48,087).
If the bears can sustain the price below the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USD pair could now drop to the critical support at $41,959.63 where buyers are likely to step in.
If the price rebounds off this support, the pair could trade between $41,959.63 and $52,040.95 for a few more days.
The flat 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint also suggest a few days of range-bound action.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns up from the current levels and rises above $52,040.95, it will open the doors for a rally to the all-time high.
On the other hand, if the bears sink and sustain the price below $41,959.63, the pair could drop to $37,000 and then to $28,050.
Ether’s (ETH) relief rally from $1,289.09 on Feb. 28 hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($1,593) on March 3. The moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover and the RSI is in the negative zone, indicating a possible change in trend.
If bears sink the price below $1,289, the selling could intensify and the ETH/USD pair could drop to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,220 and then to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,026.
Another possibility is that the pair rebounds off $1,289 and stays range-bound for a few more days. A breakout and close above $1,670 could result in a retest of the all-time high at $2,040.
The bulls are currently attempting to arrest the pullback at the 20-day EMA ($1.07). This suggests that the sentiment remains positive and the bulls are viewing the dips in Cardano (ADA) as a buying opportunity.
The buyers will now try to push the price above $1.23. If they succeed, the ADA/USD pair may rally to $1.35 and then to the all-time high at $1.4852896.
However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. The negative divergence on the RSI shows that the momentum is weakening.
If the current rebound fails to sustain, the bears will once again try to sink the price below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could drop to $0.80 and then to the 50-day simple moving average ($0.72).
The relief rally in Binance Coin (BNB) turned down from the overhead resistance at $265 on March 2. This suggests that traders may be using the rallies to close their long positions. The price has again dropped to the 20-day EMA ($211).
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA with strength, the bulls will once again try to drive the price above $265. If they manage to do that, the BNB/USD pair could start its journey to the all-time high at $348.6969.
But the 20-day EMA is gradually flattening out and the RSI continues to weaken. This points to possible range-bound action in the short term. The pair could consolidate between $189 and $265 for a few days.
A break and close below the $189 support could result in panic selling that can pull the price down to the 50-day SMA ($126).
Polkadot (DOT) turned down from $38.68 on March 3, which suggests that traders may have booked profits during the relief rally. The altcoin has dropped to the 20-day EMA ($32.49) and the buyers are now attempting to defend this support.
A strong bounce off the current levels will suggest that the sentiment remains bullish and traders are buying on dips. If the bulls can push the price above the downtrend line, the DOT/USD pair may retest the all-time high at $42.2848.
On the contrary, if the price breaks and sustains below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the supply has exceeded demand. In such a case, the pair may extend its decline to the 50-day SMA ($24.89).
XRP broke above the 20-day EMA ($0.467) on March 4, but the bulls could not maintain the momentum and thrust the price above the $0.50 overhead resistance. This attracted profit booking and the price has broken below the 20-day EMA today.
The XRP/USD pair could now drop to the 50-day SMA ($0.42) and then to $0.359. The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a range-bound action for the next few days. The price may remain stuck between $0.359 and $0.50.
A trending move could start if the bulls push the price above $0.50. That could result in a rally to $0.65. On the other hand, a break below $0.359 may sink the price to $0.25.
Uniswap (UNI) is in an uptrend and the bulls have been buying the dip to the 20-day EMA ($24.05). The bulls tried to push and sustain the price above $29 on March 4 but the higher levels attracted profit-booking.
The bears will now try to pull the price down to the 20-day EMA. If the UNI/USD pair again rebounds off this support, it will suggest that traders continue to buy the dips. The bulls will then try to push and close the price above $29. If they succeed, the pair could start the next leg of the uptrend that may reach $38.
Conversely, if the bears sink the price below the 20-day EMA, the pair could drop to $20. Such a move may result in a consolidation between $20 and $29. The trend will turn negative on a break below the 50-day SMA ($18.85).
Litecoin (LTC) broke and closed above the $185.58 resistance on March 3, but the bulls could not build upon this strength as the price turned down and dipped back below the 20-day EMA ($184.43) on March 4.
The bulls are currently attempting to defend the 50-day SMA ($169.29) as seen from the long tail on today’s candlestick. If the rebound sustains, the bulls will again try to push the price above the $185.58 to $196.30 overhead resistance zone. If they succeed, the LTC/USD pair could rally to $205 and then to $240.
However, the flat moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest a possible range formation. The pair could trade between $152 on the downside and $205 on the upside. A break above or below the range could start the next trending move.
Chainlink’s (LINK) relief rally turned down from $31.43 on March 3, which shows that traders are booking profits at higher levels. The altcoin has dipped to the 50-day SMA ($26.29) but the long tail on today’s candlestick suggests the bulls are trying to defend this support.
Buying on dips and selling rallies usually results in a range-bound action. The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also suggest a balance between supply and demand. The LINK/USD pair could now consolidate between $24 and $32 for a few days.
A breakout of the range may result in a rally to $34 and a retest of the all-time high at $36.93. Conversely, a break below $24 could pull the price down to the critical support at $20.11.
The bounce from the uptrend line stalled at the 20-day EMA ($537) on March 3, which shows the traders are selling on rallies. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has again dipped to the uptrend line. The repeated retest of the support at short intervals tends to weaken it.
The downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that bears are in control. A break below the uptrend line could sink the BCH/USD pair to $432.02 and then to the critical support at $370.
This negative view will invalidate if the price rises from the current levels and rises above $539. Such a move will suggest aggressive buying at lower levels. The pair could then rally to $631.71.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
Ray Schuetz received a Masters Degree in computer science from The University of Texas (Austin). Ray has been working as a full-time blockchain consultant for the past 3 years. In his spare time, Ray enjoys writing for EthereumCryptocurrency.com and other crypto news publications.